Honduras Crisis

Today was a very sad day for Honduras, after Manuel Zelaya insisted in returning to Tegucigalpa thousands of supporters waiting for him outside the airport, but a group of people trying to enter the airport ended up clashing with the millitary and police. One 18 year old kid was shot by a military trying to prevent people to enter the airport.  
The jet carrying Zelaya flew over Tegucigalpa a couple of times, but was not allowed to land and returned to Nicaragua.

I took these pictures around 5PM, the demostration was ending and people started to return after a curfew that was suddently announced starting at 6:30PM

Manuel Zelaya stated that he will return to Honduras on Sunday, July 5th. I try to analyze the possible scenarios of his return.

He is arrested

Roberto Micheletti stated that Zelaya will be arrested if he comes to Honduras. This might happen, though it would cause the problem that they probably tried to avoid last Sunday by sending him to exile.
The people that are against the coup will feel ok and leave the streets, but his close followers will not tolerate it.
His followers will protest outside his prison and might try to set him free forcing the police or military to two things, shoot or let them pass.

He becomes President by force

Although Zelaya has a group of followers, they are not enough for taking the presidency by force, they would need the help from an army. Even if some part of the army dissobeys Micheletti and turns to support Zelaya, they would be too few. In this scenario they would need help from another country, Nicaragua could provide him with an army financed by Venezuela, this point however would need that the USA gives a green light, before this happens the decision would need to go to the Security Council of the UN or they risk to loose the international support they already have, they would loose more than they can win. Some theorize that he might use the organized crime, anyhow they are too few, they really need an army for this.

Now as President Zelaya would have the institutions at his mercy, he could proove his word and do nothing but finish his term. There is however a risk that he would eliminate the Congress and Supreme Court, call for a Constitutional Assembly where, with the force on his side, he would place his followers in the seats. Honduras would follow the path of Venezuela. The high class would leave to the USA where they already have their savings, the high-middle class would leave to the USA, Europe and Central America. In Honduras would stay the rest of the population so the support for Zelaya would be higher and the ones against him would loose organization.

Another path is that he does eliminate the Congress and Supreme Court, call for a Constitutional Assembly but does an excellent work assigning the seats and starts a real possitive transformation in Honduras.

He becomes President by a political agreement

This is a very viable path. Right now both sides have violated the constitution, the first one with his attempt to replace the Constitution and the others by sending him out of the country without a fair trial, plus closing the media that favors him.

Thus the political agreement could be something like this:

1. Give an amnesty to Zelaya and his close employees; AND give amnesty to the coup or forced substitution perpetrators.
2. Have a Constitutional Amendment Referendum on the General Elections in November where current Constitution is modified without touching the presidency term, re-election, territory and form of government.

Both sides would be happy, the calm would come to the country, the radical left (those that want Honduras to become Venezuela) would be very dissapointed but they are a minority.

The problem here is what would the young idealists of both sides think? They would probably loose all confidence in the system, a damage for the next generations.

He goes to a trial

He could return as President or civilian and go to trial. The fact is that he would probably loose it, he did violate the law and dissobey a resolution from the court. The people against the coup will divide, some will be happy, some not; then his followers will reduce and they will protest. International community will divide, ALBA will support Zelaya but the EU and USA might now support the new government as they will follow a legal procedure and not with military actions.

He returns to lead an insurrection

He could enter the country illegaly and direct the insurrection. I believe some of his followers dream with this possibility as it will start some sort of Guerrilla. I do not see this option to really happen, although Zelaya comes from a rural place, he has always had money and land, something very different of being and outlaw in the mountains. His close employees have money too, they do not seem to be willing this scenario in the long term either.

UPDATE 2009/07/06: He returns for trial with UN peacekeepers

I received a comment from Frank Drakman which I consider a viable solution. He proposes that Zelaya returns for trial and UN peacekeepers come during that period. The Honduran Army could leave the streets and people against the coup would also calm down. Zelaya’s followers would not be very happy but they would need to calm down because of international pressure. It is important that international observers come so the trial is assured to be fair.

He might never return to power and/or get killed following this scenario.

What do I think?

I would like him to return and receive a fair trial, it is the legal thing to do.

I think the political agreement is what would finally happen, a political problem solved by politicians. The problem is that all those young ones that I have seen in the streets protesting for both sides will return to their indifference, politicians may save the country from a bloodbath but will have a hard time in the years to come.

Update 2009/06/07: Yesterday Zelaya attempted a return to Honduras asking his followers to wait for him at the airport and enter the airstrip to receive him. Some 30000 followers from all the country joined and went to the airport willing to enter the airstrip. When his followers tried to enter the police and army first shot tear gas. Still some tried to enter then there was a shooting, a young person got killed from a shot in the head. This is a sad time for Honduras, we lost a young idealist. The international community has to talk with Manuel Zelaya and get him to understand that his return must come by the diplomatic way, if it is by force it will only cause more blood from hondurans.

What do YOU think?

Please leave some comments…

5 days have passed since the forced succession or coup of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. The international community now has more information about the context of the situation. It is now time to ask Manuel Zelaya and Roberto Micheletti real questions that, in my opinion, they have answered poorly or given no answer at all.

11 Questions to Manuel Zelaya

1. What are the ammendments to the constitution that you want that are impossible with the current Honduran Constitution?
2. Why did you not follow the legal procedure for a Referendum once the corresponding Law was approved?
3. If you did not like the law of Referendum, why did you not follow a legal/political procedure in order to modify it and instead made fun of it in national TV?
4. If you had 400000 petitions to realize the 4th Ballot Box, why did you not present it to the Congress in order to call  for a referendum, given that it is only necesary a 6% (+/- 240000) of the Active Voters ?
5. Why did you dissobey the resolution from the Justice System, the Constitutional Chamber and the Supreme Elections Tribune?
6. If you wanted to realize a survey, why was it realized as a normal voting with ballot boxes and not as an statistical procedure?
7. Why propaganda of the 4th Ballot Box and the survey always presented people answering  YES?
8. Why did  you not let the Supreme Elections Tribune nor the political/social entities support with the supervision of the survey?
9. Why realize the survey in June and not in November with the General Elections?
10. If in your capture you were beated by the army, why do you not show any signs of injuries?
11. Why international media like CNN and TeleSur do not show massive protests in your favor as it is against you?

11 Questions to Roberto Micheletti

1. If you had an order to arrest President Zelaya, why did you let him go instead of capturing him?
2. If President Zelaya had resigned on June 25th, why did you not follow the procedure that day and waited until Sunday?
3. Why did you use Zelaya’s resignation letter  if he was removed legally?
4. Why did the only non-censored media acted like nothing happened during June 28th and was showing soccer, soap operas and cartoons?
5. If you call yourselves democratic, why free press is censored shutting down Channel 36, Radio Globo, TeleSur and from time to time CNN?
6. Why is the army still in the streets if you already have the police on your orders?
7. Why do you only provide security to the protestors against-Zelaya and not the pro-Zelaya?
8. Why does the media not cover the protestors pro-Zelaya?
9. Is it true that Billy Joya, who has been linked with human rights crimes during the 80s, is your advisor?
10. Why did the Congress limited the constitutional rights from 10:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m.  during the next 72 hours?
11. Why is the Justice System and police capturing Marcello Chimirri, Manuel Zelaya’s close friend, now if they had the case against him some time ago?

This is an article that was sent by @Gorileo (twitter) and explains (in spanish) the legal aspects of the Honduras Constitution that prohibit wha Manuel Zelaya was promoting: a National Constitutional Assembly to modify the Honduras Constitution that would allow him to perpetuate in power for many years, following the blueprint of the CHAVEZ regime (applied earlier in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and currently in process in Nicaragua)

The article (blogpost) is http://laprotestamilitar.blogspot.com/2009/06/montesquieu-vive-en-honduras.html

We can’t deny that Honduras is a polarized country. There are those who support Zelaya and those who don’t… this doesn’t mean that there is a generalized support for a ‘Coup’ or the way authorities acted (use of military forces). In fact, what they did (the-new-government)  was the worse thing they could have ever done… with it they gave Zelaya super powers… made him a global martyr of democracy… a symbol to be imprinted on t-shirts for years to come. These super powers come from the unconditional support from organizations like the UN, OAS and ALBA (of course, the leader of this one is CHAVEZ… his boss).

Here are some videos that represent both sides, those who support Zelaya and those who support that Zelaya Se Vaya! [Zelaya Go Away!]

1) Zelaya Supporters tend to express their passion with riots and damaging public and private property… the Armed Forces then need to neutralize the situation with intimidation:

Look at this other video about the riots against american franchises and local businesses.

2) Those who want Zelaya to leave (Zelaya Se Vaya!) gathered on the Central Park in Tegucigalpa on June 30 to celebrate the fact that he is gone…

Your thoughts about this situation?

This letter was written by Jorge García regarding the actual crisis in Honduras. The text is provided as written on the original post, only formatting changes have been made.

I make this post in order to set a context of the Honduras situation during the last days of June 2009, this is part of my point of view trying to extract my personal feelings about the situation. I welcome any comments and suggestions of any kind.

Facts

The President of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya Rosales, called for a public opinion survey to be held the 28th of June with the goal of adding a 4th Ballot Box of Referendum, the 1st is for president, the 2nd is for the city major and the 3rd is for the congressmen.

• The 4th Ballot Box had as a goal to call an Assembly in order to create a new constitution of Honduras.
• The President argued that he had around 400000 signed petitions from the people in order for the new constitution.
• The public opinion survey was managed, supervised and counted by the government by a division under the president.
• The public opinion survey was declared illegal by the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Attorney General, the Supreme Tribune of Elections (entity in charge of all election related matters in Honduras and independent from the President).
• The President decided to ignore the Supreme Court and pursue with the public opinion survey and ordered his staff, including the army, to support with the logistics of the survey.
• On June 24th the army refused to support the logistics of the survey because of an order from the Court stating that they would violate the law.
• The President on a public appearance decided to cease the General of the Army, Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, arguing that he did not obey his order.
• The Congress, presided by Roberto Micheletti, decided to dissaprove the President for firing the General of the Army and the Supreme Court decided that he was fired under illegal circumstances because he was, as they concluded, following the law.
• On June 27th a comission from OAS arrived to Honduras in order to supervise the public opinion survey.
• On June 28th the President was captured by the army and sent by helicopter to Costa Rica, the order to capture him was, as stated by the current government, ordered by the Supreme Court.
• A new Excecutive power was installed, becoming Roberto Micheletti as President.
• The President is elected by the people during the General Elections.
• The Congress is elected by the people during the General Elections.
• The Supreme Court is nominated by the people then filtered and assigned by the Congress.

Additional Facts

The President held popular projects such as:

• Providing public schools of a computer lab and soon to be with Internet (@prende)
• Moving around the country in open meetings named “Asambleas del Poder Ciudadano”
• Providing food at schools with “Merienda Escolar” a continuation of the project of Ricardo Maduro.

The President also held more controversial projects such as:

• Raising the minimum wage from around $150/Month to $289/Month the project was opposed by many companies arguing that unemployment would raise. It was, however embraced by big companies.
• Joining the ALBA, a country coalision with Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua by the time. The project was opposed by the politicians arguing that ALBA was a economic/military alliance, but then was approved by the Congress.
• Order a direct purchase of oil. The project was opposed by oil companies and by part of the private sector arguing that the government was unefficient and it would cause inventory problems.
• Create a Mobile company managed by the state.
• After the TACA accident of 2008 he planned to move the Capital, Tegucigalpa, Airport to 80 KM on the North at the Comayagua Valley. The project was opposed by the City Major, Ricardo Alvarez who is a member of the National Party, the opposition.

The President had strong opposition during his government by:

• Journals El Heraldo and La Prensa, owned by the same person. The journals are very popular in Honduras.
• Some people from the middle and upper class that refer him as donkey, idiot and stronger adjectives.

The President had strong favor by:

• The government journal “El Poder Ciudadano”.
• The government channel “Canal 8″.
• The private channel “Canal 36″, Cholusat Sur.

The questions that everybody asks

Why was the president removed from power if he just wanted to do a Referendum?

The Honduran Constitution treats as Traitor those who want to change it, specially on 4 matters named the “Petrios” (read Pe-tree-os) Articles:

• Presidential term, currently set to 4 years.
• Presidential re-election, currently impossible.
• Territory.
• Form of government, currently 3 independent and complementary institutions: one that creates and approves the laws (Congress), one that proposes and executes the law (Executive, lead by the President), one that Judges the compliance with the law (Supreme Court).

Being the survey a path to a Referendum to create a new Constitution, it was viewed as a violation of the Constitution.

He did not follow the recently approved legal procedure for a Referendum, which must be done by the Congress or by 6% of the active population, the 400000 requests are more than the 240000 requests needed. Anyhow there is no legal way to create a new Constitution but he could have reformed around 90% of the Constitution, the only points are the 4 above.

The President argues that he was removed because he was helping the poor and that the private/political sectors were not happy with that. Additionally that those same sectors are afraid because of his ties with ALBA countries.

If he commited a crime, why was he not put into a trial (such as an impeachment) instead of sending him out of the country?

The Honduran Constitution and Laws do not have an established procedure for an impeachment.

Anyhow there was no trial and veredict, there comes, to my opinion, a fault commited by the institutions, if somebody commits a crime he/she should be jugded and clear veredict should be provided.

I believe they sent him out of the country for tactical reasons in order to make harder his return to power, it backfired as he used the international media and international institutions to pressure the new government.

What was that story about a resignation and why was it signed on June 25th?

One of the methods for switching President is if he presents his resignation, in that case the Vice-President, Elvin Santos, takes his place and if not the President of Congress, Roberto Micheletti. Given that the Vice-President had resigned in order to become the presidential candidate for the Liberal Party so the President of Congress took the place.

The date is the easiest part to “justify” given that it could have been a negotiation of the President with the Congress after the Army refused to support him.
The problem is how do we know if it is real? We can not, plus nobody believes it as true.

Why with the military force and not with the police?

My guess is that the Congress was not sure that the police, which is under the Executive power, lead by the President, would follow that order.

Why are the national and international media being controlled such as CNN, Canal 8 and Canal 36?

I believe that the media is controlled in order to control propaganda that generates chaos. Anyhow it is unacceptable, if the current government wants to be called democratic, then freedom of speech through media is required.

If the President and the survey is so popular, why are there not massive riots?

The country right now is divided at least in three parts of unknown size:

• Those who want the President back, I will call the pro-Zelaya. This group is lead by the Unions, small farmers, UD party – which is a socialist/communist party-, student unions and are the ones rioting.
• Those who do not want the President back, I will call them against-zelaya. This group is lead by the political parties, part of the private sector, some of the media and with support of part of the upper and upper-middle class.
• Those who did not want the President to violate the law but are not in favor of the methods to remove him and control the population, I will call them the non-aligned. This group is, to my point of view, is the largest, silent and appears to be just waiting for everything to solve by itself.

Why is the military force on the streets controlling people, and why is there a prohibition to go out after 9pm?

I believe this was done for security of the people. The problem is that in every riot there are people that want to generate chaos and this generates agression and conflicts between military and the rioting people.

If the President had 400000 requests, was it not enough for asking the Congress to add the 4th urn?

No answer, it seems that nobody thought about it or spoke about it publicly.

If the survey was so unpopular, why not leting the vote on June 28th and leting the NO win?

The campaign was that the survey was illegal so it should not be held. Many persons were going to boicot the survey by not attending. Additionaly, many persons were indifferent to the survey, as it normally happens in such cases.

The opposition campaign also argued that the survey was all controlled by the government without intervention of the Supreme Tribune of Elections so nobody, but the government who called it would control/guarantee it. The President argued that it had OAS supervisors.

So where are we right now?

To my point of view, we now have several options, those that come to my mind are:

Manuel Zelaya returns as President of Honduras

• This is probably the only acceptable option for the pro-Zelaya sector.
• The against-Zelaya sector would be afraid of prosecution because of the situation and this might lead to chaos given that the Congress, Supreme Court, Army, Attorney General, etc… are involved so the President could find justifiable to solve the powers and call for a Constitutional Assembly to reform the Constitution.
• The non-aligned probably would not care, as it would return to the status quo before the incident.
• This option would require a strong dialog between the President and the against-Zeyala.

Roberto Micheletti stays as President of Honduras.

• This in unacceptable for the pro-Zelaya sector.
• Riots will continue, at least until the next government takes the Presidency.
• If censorship and strong military activity continues the non-aligned would become more and more against the current government.

Manuel Zelaya returns and goes to a trial

• The against-Zelaya probably would want it.
• It would be unacceptable for the pro-Zelaya.
• It is hard to tell what would happen with the non-aligned, they would embrace it but not with strength.

The General Elections are called as soon as possible

• The against-Zelaya probably would accept it.
• The non-aligned would probably accept it too.
• The pro-Zelaya, at least a part will not.

What to do?

I seriously do not know, I must say that negotiations should be held before any of the mayor decisions are taken and for this Honduras will need help for a non-controversial international leader to mediate.

As it is now there is no civil war, so it is still time to solve the problem.

I really hope that you help us!